Hallo, habt Ihr schon die neuesten Warnungen von der NASA und anderen Instituten in Sachen geomagnetischer Stürme gesehen? Vielleicht lohnt es sich, in den nächsten Nächten auf der Hut zu sein, auch wenn es nicht so stark sein sol wie am 06./07. April. Die aktuellen Daten (Sonnenwind, Kp-Index etc.) findet Ihr auch unter www.saevert.de/aurora.htm

Gruß, Thomas Sävert

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POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING

ISSUED: 02:20 UTC, 10 MAY

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(See Appended Comments for Synoptic Information)

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 12 - 13 MAY (UTC days)

MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 11 - 13 MAY

POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MINOR

POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: STRONG MINOR

POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM: APPROX 36 TO 48 HOURS

DURATION OF MAIN BELT OF ACTIVITY: APPROX 24 TO 36 HOURS

POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 6

POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 7

EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX: 4 - 5

EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX: 5

POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: LOW - MODERATE

POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MINOR

EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: GOOD

POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: MODERATE

POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MINOR

EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: FAIR TO GOOD

POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: HIGH

POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: STRONG MINOR

EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: POOR TO VERY POOR

POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS: 25%

SUSPECTED SOURCE OF OBSERVED/EXPECTED ACTIVITY:

Earth-directed coronal mass ejection from a solar filament eruption.

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EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC IMPACT

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SEVERE STORM : 10 % LOW LATITUDES : MINOR

MAJOR STORM : 20 % MIDDLE LATITUDES : MINOR

MINOR STORM : 40 % HIGH LATITUDES : STRONG MINOR

ACTIVE OR LESS : 30 % POLAR LATITUDES : STRONG MINOR

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PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION :OBSRVD ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MINOR-STRONG MINOR

ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM: 25-35

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COMMENTS:

The velocity of this anticipated disturbance is fairly low, but the

imbedded magnetic fields have the potential of being directed southward

strongly enough to produce periods of minor to major geomagnetic storming,

particularly over the high latitude regions. The lower velocity of this

disturbance will translate into a longer-lasting disturbance. There is a

chance this activity may last 36 to 48 hours.

Currently, the disturbance is projected to arrive sometime during the

mid to late UTC hours of 11 May.