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Wetterzentrale Forum Archiv 2000 1. Halbjahr

Polarlicht-Watch

Geschrieben von: Mark (Niederbayern)
Datum: 12. April 2000, 15:37 Uhr


Hallo Leute,
hab gerade folgende Meldung bekommen:

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 02:15 UTC, 12 APRIL

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ACTIVATION: 00:00 UTC ON 13 APRIL
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 14 APRIL

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 13 APRIL
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 13 - 14 APRIL

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 12, 20, 15, 10 (12 APR - 15 APR)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE, BECOMING LOW TO NIL AFTER 3AM LOCAL

EXPECTED OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY _MAY_ BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA

TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO DARK SKY

SITES OF NEW YORK STATE, VERMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE.

ACTIVITY _MAY_ ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

EXTREME NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO CENTRAL NORWAY TO CENTRAL SWEDEN AND

FINLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

SYNOPSIS...

A minor but potentially influential solar flare erupted late in the day
of 09 April. This event, which had radio characteristics suggesting a mass
ejection occurred, did not appear to be associated with a coronal mass
ejection based on visible corongraph imagery from the SOHO spacecraft.
However, our movies from the SOHO spacecraft imagery - which differ from
those produced by the SOHO science teams (from the service provided at:
http://www.spacew.com/c2 and www.spacew.com/c3) appeared to show a very weak
halo coronal mass ejection following this event. Evaluation of the imagery by
other forecasters at the Space Environment Center today agreed that a halo
CME may have indeed been associated with the flare event.

If this analysis proves correct, an interplanetary disturbance may
impact the Earth sometime on 13 April. Our most recent model runs suggest an
impact may occur between 04:00 UTC and 13:00 UTC on 13 April, give or take 6
to 12 hours. There is a chance this disturbance may be strong enough to drive
periods of moderately strong auroral activity, primarily over the high
latitude regions. Some dark-sky middle latitude sites may also be able to
spot periods of activity. For this reason, we are issuing this middle
latitude auroral activity watch for the 13-14 April time frame.

Note that we do not expect this disturbance to be nearly as strong as
the 06/07 April auroral storm event.

This watch will be updated or allowed to expire at 19:00 UTC on
14 April.

Observers who suspect they have observed auroral activity are encouraged
to report their findings to our site at:

http://www.spacew.com/www/auroras.html.

** End of Watch **

Beiträge in diesem Thread

Polarlicht-Watch -- Mark (Niederbayern) -- 12. April 2000, 15:37 Uhr
Re: Polarlicht-Watch -- che -- 12. April 2000, 15:56 Uhr
Re: Polarlicht-Watch -- che -- 12. April 2000, 16:15 Uhr
Re: Polarlicht-Watch -- ThomasH -- 12. April 2000, 18:25 Uhr
Re: Polarlicht-Watch -- che -- 12. April 2000, 18:28 Uhr
Re: Polarlicht-Watch -- ThomasH -- 12. April 2000, 18:42 Uhr
Re: Polarlicht-Watch -- André -- 12. April 2000, 19:22 Uhr
Re: Polarlicht-Watch -- ThomasH -- 12. April 2000, 21:32 Uhr
Re: Polarlicht-Watch -- André -- 12. April 2000, 21:57 Uhr
was das bedeutet -- Mark (Niederbayern) -- 12. April 2000, 20:39 Uhr
Re: was das bedeutet -- Mark (Niederbayern) -- 12. April 2000, 21:48 Uhr
Re: was das bedeutet -- André -- 12. April 2000, 22:08 Uhr

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